Donald Trump leads over President Joe Biden among older voters by 7 percentage points
On Tuesday, July 9, 2024 AARP Wisconsin released a 2024 statewide election survey, showing candidates for president, U.S. Senate, and state races should pay close attention to Wisconsinites ages 50 and older. Eighty-five percent of voters ages 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to vote in this election, compared to just 64 percent of voters ages 18-49.
Former President Donald Trump (R) leads President Joe Biden (D) among voters ages 18 and older, 44 percent – 38 percent, with Robert Kennedy, Jr. polling at 9 percent. Trump also leads among voters ages 50 and older, 48 percent – 41 percent; the candidates are tied at 45 percent among voters ages 65 and older, while Trump leads by 15-points among those ages 50-64.
Biden is ahead by 8-points among women overall and by 6-points among women ages 50 and older, while men of all ages favor Trump by 22-points.
Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) holds the lead over Eric Hovde (R), 50 percent – 45 percent, in the U.S. Senate race among voters overall. Among voters 50 and older, Hovde has a narrow advantage over Sen. Baldwin, 50 percent – 47 percent.
The cohort of 50-64-year-olds favor Hovde by 7-points, while Baldwin has a 2-point lead among those ages 65 and older. Women strongly favor Baldwin, with leads of 18-points among women overall and 12-points among women 50 and older.
Any candidate that hopes to woo older voters ought to pay attention to the issues that matter most to this group. Eighty-three percent of voters ages 50 and older report that candidates’ positions on Social Security are very important in deciding whom to vote for in November, followed by Medicare (72 percent), helping people stay in their homes as they age (63 percent), and the cost of prescription drugs (62 percent). And the vast majority (84 percent) of older Wisconsin voters prefer a member of Congress who wants Medicare to continue negotiations for lower drug prices.
Wisconsin residents ages 50 and older make up an outsized portion of the electorate: in the 2020 elections, older voters accounted for 55 percent of all Wisconsin voters and in the 2022 midterms, they made up 61 percent of the state’s voters.
“Wisconsin voters over age 50 are the biggest voting bloc and could tip the scale for any candidate in this election,” said Martha Cranley, State Director, AARP Wisconsin. “If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to voters over age 50, from protecting Social Security to supporting family caregivers.”
Other key takeaways from the poll voters among older voters include:
- Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) say Social Security is or will be a major source of their income.
- Immigration and border security (37 percent) is the most important issue when deciding who to vote for in November, followed by inflation and rising prices (29 percent), and threats to democracy (21 percent).
- 58 percent of these voters cite personal economic issues – inflation and rising prices, the economy and jobs, and Social Security – as most important. Notably, both Trump are Hovde are leading among older voters who prioritize these issues.
- Fifty-six percent of older voters say they are worried about their personal financial situation, compared to 65 percent of voters ages 18-49.
- Twenty-four percent of voters over 50 identify as family caregivers, with 27 percent of older women and 29 percent of GOP voters over 50 saying the same. Family caregivers make up 21 percent of Wisconsin voters overall.
- Swing voters over 50 make up 19 percent of older voters overall, and they are more likely to be Independents and moderates.
- Sixty-four percent of voters ages 50 and older support expanding Medicaid healthcare to Wisconsin residents earning under $20,000 annually.
AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Wisconsin. The firms interviewed 1,052 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 452 likely voters ages 50 and older. The survey was done between June 28-July 2, 2024.
The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on landline (20 percent) and cellphone (35 percent), as well as SMS-to-web (46 percent). The sample was randomly drawn from the Wisconsin voter list. The margin of sampling error at the 95 percent confidence level for the 600 statewide sample is ±4.0 percent; for the 800 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.5 percent.
View the full survey results at aarp.org/WIpolling. For more information on how, when, and where to vote in Wisconsin, visit aarp.org/WIvotes.
